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Subhankar

Key risks for the stock market – a guest post

Posted by on April 23, 2014 20:33 pm · 16 views

in Stock Trading

When stock market indices keep touching new highs on a daily basis, the biggest risk that small investors face is getting the urge to jump in by throwing caution to the winds. Unexpected election results and possibility of El Nino conditions that can cause a less-than-adequate monsoon are other risks that are being faced by […]


Gold and Silver charts: an update

Posted by on April 22, 2014 20:58 pm · 21 views

in Stock Trading

In the previous post on the daily bar chart pattern of gold, a ‘reversal day’ pattern formed on Mar 17 ‘14 and the failure of the 50 day EMA to cross above the 200 day EMA (‘golden cross’) were mentioned as technical reasons for explaining gold’s slide back into bear territory. However, bullish ‘rounding bottom’ patterns formed […]


The following comments appeared in last week’s analysis of the 6 months daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: “The index is just above a support zone between 1800-1810. Buying interest may emerge here.” The index found good support at the 1815 level – just above the support zone mentioned – and climbed above its 20 day and […]


Sensex Possibilities: a guest post

Posted by on April 20, 2014 22:20 pm · 42 views

in Stock Trading

WIth Sensex touching new highs on a regular basis, analysts of all shapes and sizes have started to predict fantastic index levels without really explaining how and why those levels can be reached. Despite the past few years of slowing GDP growth – a worldwide phenomenon – India continues to show positive growth. Things can […]


Sensex, Nifty charts: bulls absorb profit booking

Posted by on April 19, 2014 12:06 pm · 51 views

in Stock Trading

In a holiday-truncated week, Sensex and Nifty were not expected to go anywhere – and they didn’t. Both indices closed flat for the week. However, intra-week gyrations kept small investors on tenterhooks. When stock indices are trading at life-time highs, some caution is warranted. However, both indices are in long-term bull markets – which means […]


Stocks in the news this week (Apr 17, ‘14)

Posted by on April 17, 2014 20:52 pm · 224 views

in Stock Trading

As human beings and investors, we are prone to biases in our decision making. ‘Recency bias’ clouds our minds if a recent event had caused a lot of pain – like losing money by buying or selling near a market top. Three days of profit booking by FIIs (they can’t go on buying all the […]


WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bulls fight back

Posted by on April 15, 2014 20:51 pm · 372 views

in Stock Trading

In a previous update to the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil, a bearish ‘rising wedge’ pattern was forming. It was expected that oil’s price would break downwards from the wedge. Since technical analysis is not a science but based on empirical observations, patterns don’t always play out as expected. Note that oil’s price broke […]


S&P 500, FTSE 100 charts: facing sharp corrections

Posted by on April 14, 2014 20:07 pm · 427 views

in Stock Trading

Several bearish signals led to the following concluding comments in last week’s analysis of the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: “Maintain a stop-loss at 1840 to protect profits. A drop below 1840 would confirm an intermediate top at 1897. A deeper correction may follow.” After bouncing up from the 1840 level in the early part of […]


Of all the stories and incidents related in the epic ‘Mahabharata’ there are none more valiant nor tragic than the story of Abhimanyu. While still in the womb of his mother, Subhadra (who was Lord Krishna’s sister), the yet unborn son of Arjuna heard and remembered the details of a defensive military formation – called […]


Sensex, Nifty charts: continue to touch new highs

Posted by on April 12, 2014 21:15 pm · 655 views

in Stock Trading

For the financial year ended Mar 31 ‘14, India’s exports grew by 4% (to $312.35 Bn); imports dropped by 8% (to $450.94 Bn), leading to a 27% drop in the trade deficit. However, for the month of Mar ‘14 the trade deficit rose by 29% over Feb ‘14 due to lower exports. With visible recovery […]


Stocks in the news this week (Apr 10, ‘14)

Posted by on April 10, 2014 20:32 pm · 888 views

in Stock Trading

Bulls (i.e. FIIs) have been on the rampage for a while, with market indices scaling new highs regularly. All kinds of stocks are ‘getting discovered’ by those who could not or did not buy when indices were at lower levels. Though absolute values of Sensex and Nifty are at their highest ever levels, the numbers […]


Gold and Silver charts: bears regain control

Posted by on April 8, 2014 19:58 pm · 737 views

in Stock Trading

The 6 months daily bar chart pattern of gold rallied splendidly from the beginning of the year and gained more than 200 points before topping out with a ‘reversal day’ pattern on Mar 17 ‘14. Gold’s price rose convincingly above its 200 day EMA – supported by a volume surge. But that wasn’t enough to […]


The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 broke out above the rectangular range within which it was trading since the beginning of Mar ‘14 – but it turned out to be a joke on All Fool’s Day. There was no accompanying surge in volumes to validate the upward break out. The index managed to […]


Sensex, Nifty charts: correcting overbought conditions

Posted by on April 5, 2014 18:43 pm · 758 views

in Stock Trading

RBI maintained status quo on interest rates – as was widely expected by economists and analysts. The stock market treated it as a non-event. With predictions of El-Nino doing the rounds, a weak monsoon during Jun-Sep period is a possibility. If the predictions do come true, food prices are going to move up. RBI may […]


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