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For most Indians, buying gold is a no-brainer. Gold is bought for the family deity. It is bought for a daughter’s wedding and for the wife on a wedding anniversary. It is bought on Dhanteras, and on Diwali. Having significant amounts of gold in one’s possession is a sign of great wealth and status. But […]

The following comments appeared in last week’s analysis of the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500: “The sharp volume spurt during Wednesday’s low may be the sign of a ‘selling climax’ that has bearish implications if the index fails to regain at least 50% of its fall from the Sep ‘14 top of 2020 to 1820. That […]

Sensex, Nifty charts: recover from 4 weeks long corrections

Posted by on October 26, 2014 11:05 am · 58 views

in Stock Trading

Profit booking by FIIs after the stock market touched a lifetime high on Sep 8 ‘14 caused a correction that threatened the up trend (marked by UL3 on Sensex and Nifty charts) that followed BJP’s victory in the general elections. Recent results of state elections in Haryana (BJP majority) and Maharashtra (BJP largest party) will […]

Sensex has undergone a bull market correction after touching a lifetime high in Sep ‘14. FII selling was the main trigger. With BJP likely to form a government in Maharashtra and Haryana, sentiments have turned positive again. Except BSE Metals and BSE Realty indices, all the other 9 indices are trading above their rising 200 […]

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: an update

Posted by on October 22, 2014 9:58 am · 29 views

in Stock Trading

In the previous post, bears seemed to have total control of the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil. Positive divergences visible on technical indicators had raised some bullish hopes of a recovery. But such hopes were soon snuffed out. Oil’s price continued to plummet and touched an intra-day low of 84 – easily achieving […]

Bears had tightened their grips and daily technical indicators were looking bearish in last week’s analysis of the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500. A breach of the 200 day EMA appeared imminent. The index easily breached its 200 day EMA on the first day of the week, and dropped all the way to 1820 on […]

Sensex, Nifty charts: post-election up trends under threat

Posted by on October 18, 2014 14:09 pm · 60 views

in Stock Trading

For the third straight holiday-shortened trading week, FIIs remained net sellers of equity. Their cumulative net selling this month has crossed Rs 6500 Crores. DIIs have been net buyers on all 9 trading days in Oct ‘14. Their cumulative net buying is a bit less than Rs 4800 Crores. The euphoria in the stock market […]

Are the fundamentals really improving? The short answer is: Yes. Let us look at some facts: 1. WPI inflation dropped to its lowest level in 5 years. CPI inflation also dropped – below 6.5%. The primary reason for this drop is lower food prices – which is not due to any monetary action by RBI […]

Gold and Silver charts: bear market rallies

Posted by on October 14, 2014 20:54 pm · 33 views

in Stock Trading

After breaching the support level of 1240, the daily bar chart pattern of gold was expected to fall to its previous low of 1180. The good news for gold bulls is that the 1180 level was tested but not breached. The subsequent upward bounce was sharp – typical of bear market rallies. Gold’s price crossed […]

S&P 500, FTSE 100 charts: bears on top

Posted by on October 13, 2014 19:31 pm · 21 views

in Stock Trading

Bears tightened their hold on the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500. Any hope of a recovery by bulls was belied on the first day of the week. The index rose to touch an intra-day high of 1978, but faced resistance from its falling 20 day EMA, and formed a ‘reversal day’ pattern. Attempts […]

Sensex, Nifty charts: continue to correct as FIIs sell

Posted by on October 11, 2014 20:39 pm · 72 views

in Stock Trading

FIIs were net sellers during another holiday-shortened week. Net buying by DIIs could not quite match up to FII selling. Both Sensex and Nifty closed 1% lower for the week. Poor growth numbers from Europe spooked FII sentiments. The IIP number was a disappointing 0.4% for August ‘14 – much below consensus estimate of 2.4%. […]

Stock Market Outlook: Keep Your Expectations in Check

Posted by on October 9, 2014 20:50 pm · 31 views

in Stock Trading

Sensex gained almost 57% (~9900 points) from its Aug 28, 2013 intra-day low of 17449 to its Sep 8, 2014 intra-day high of 27355. That is an exceptional performance considering it occurred during a period of high inflation, low GDP growth and high interest rates. Inflation has started moderating. GDP growth is showing signs of […]

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: bears have total control

Posted by on October 7, 2014 13:17 pm · 19 views

in Stock Trading

The following comments appeared in a post two weeks back on the daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil: “Another attempt at a rally is possible from the current level, but downward momentum appears to be building up again. That means a likely breach of the 90 level should follow shortly.” Note that oil’s price rallied above […]

Daily technical indicators were looking bearish in last week’s analysis of the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 index. Some more correction – and a possible test of the Aug ‘14 low of 1905 – was expected. The index dropped sharply to touch an intra-day low of 1926 on Thu. Oct 2 ‘14, but bounced up […]

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