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The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 rose to touch a lower top of 2115 on Mon. Mar 23 ‘15, formed a ‘reversal day’ pattern (higher high, lower close), corrected below its 20 day and 50 day EMAs, and broke down below the large ‘rising wedge’ pattern on Thu. Mar 26 ‘15. On the last day […]

Militant groups have been under fire on several fronts. Pakistani Air Force is pounding Taliban fighters on the Af-Pak border. USA has resumed air strikes on IS in Iraq. Saudi Arabian jets bombed Houthi militants in Yemen. Global markets were spooked by the possibility that movement of oil tankers through Aden may get affected. Prices […]

The US economy has been on a revival path for quite some time. The Quantitative Easing programme to stimulate a sluggish economy was gradually tapered off last year. With inflation showing signs of inching up, the stage is getting set for a possible interest rate hike by the US Fed. Why should that be of […]

WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: an update

Posted by on March 24, 2015 12:57 pm · 23 views

in Stock Trading

The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil dropped below the support level of 47.50 and breached its Jan ‘15 low. After touching a 6 yr low of 42.50, oil’s price pulled back to the 47.50 level – where it is also facing resistance from its 20 day EMA. Bears are likely to use the pullback […]

The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 bounced up smartly from the twin support of the 2040 level and the lower edge of the large ‘rising wedge’ pattern. All three EMAs have resumed their upward moves, and the index is trading above them in a long-term bull market. Bears may have lost the battle, but not […]

Sunday musings: dichotomy in an investor’s psyche?

Posted by on March 22, 2015 10:54 am · 33 views

in Stock Trading

According to Hindu mythology, Lord Krishna was an ‘avataar’ of Lord Vishnu – born in human form to rid the world of evil forces. (“Paritranaya sadhunam vinasaya ca duskrtam, dharma samsthapanarthaya sambhavami yuge yuge” – Bhagavad Gita, Ch. 4:8) How Krishna was born to Devaki and Vasudeva inside a prison, how he was smuggled out to live his […]

The mining bill got passed in the Rajya Sabha – this time with support from Trinamool Congress. The turnaround from a very vocal opposition party shows good ‘floor management’ by NDA. Perhaps a ‘quid pro quo’ (‘You help us to pass bills, we won’t oppose you strongly in the forthcoming municipal elections’)? Advance tax figures […]

Nifty chart: a mid-week update (Mar 18 ‘15)

Posted by on March 18, 2015 21:02 pm · 35 views

in Stock Trading

WPI Inflation for Feb ‘15 was a lower-than-expected –2.06% compared with –0.39% in Jan ‘15 and 5% in Feb ‘14. Lower oil price was the main contributor to lower inflation. But food inflation, which has greater weightage in CPI inflation, remains a concern. Heavy unseasonal rain damaged standing crops in Punjab, UP and Maharashtra. The […]

Gold and Silver charts: an update

Posted by on March 17, 2015 14:14 pm · 20 views

in Stock Trading

The daily bar chart pattern of gold tried to cling on to the 1200 level for a few days, but the force of gravity (i.e. bear selling) pulled it all the way down to 1150 – where it is trying to find a temporary bottom. All three technical indicators are inside their respective oversold zones – which […]

Bearish technical indicators in last week’s analysis of the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 had hinted at a continuation of the corrective move. The index dropped sharply below its 50 day EMA, but bounced up after receiving good support from the lower edge of the large ‘rising wedge’ pattern. Note that the 50 day EMA is providing […]

The Indian stock market has been in a bull phase since Dec 2011. Nifty had touched a low of 4531 on Dec 20 ‘11, and rose to touch a lifetime high of 9119 on Mar 4 ‘15 – doubling in a little over 3 years. Can the market rise even higher? Sure it can. Can […]

The stock market was clearly disappointed by the economic data announced last week. The IIP number was positive, but lower than the previous two months. CPI inflation has started inching up again – mainly due to higher food prices. That may force the RBI’s hand into postponing any further interest rate cuts. The insurance bill […]

Nifty chart: a mid-week update (Mar 11 ‘15)

Posted by on March 11, 2015 20:17 pm · 49 views

in Stock Trading

Expectations of a mid-year interest rate hike in the US propelled the US Dollar to new highs against global currencies. ECB began its bond buying (QE) programme with freshly printed money – further weakening the Euro against the Dollar. FIIs switched to ‘sell’ mode – their net selling during the past two days was worth […]

The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil continued its sideways consolidation in a range between 47.50 and 54.50. The support level of 47.50 was not breached – which is good news for bulls. The bad news is that the falling 50 day EMA is providing strong resistance on the upside. The brief rally is trying […]

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