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Subhankar

Oil prices have fallen off a cliff – from above $110 a barrel to less than $50 a barrel in the space of 6-7 months. Part of it was due to speculation. Discovery of huge quantities of shale oil in USA, and development of technology for extracting it at reasonable cost has reduced the dependence […]


WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: an update

Posted by on January 27, 2015 18:33 pm · 17 views

in Stock Trading

The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil attempted a weak rally that briefly crossed the 50 level, but faced strong resistance from the falling 20 day EMA. Oil’s price has consolidated sideways in a range between 45-50 for most of this month, but looks ready to fall further. Daily technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, […]


S&P 500, FTSE 100 charts: bulls fight back

Posted by on January 26, 2015 19:14 pm · 20 views

in Stock Trading

The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 shows a ding-dong battle between bulls and bears. A couple of downward breaches of the lower support line of the bearish ‘rising wedge’ pattern have been followed by upward bounces back inside the wedge – one at the beginning of the month and one last week. On both occasions, […]


Previous week’s 25 bps interest rate cut by RBI had come as a surprise for the stock market – not because it was unexpected but because the timing of the cut was a month ahead of schedule. Bulls reacted with ‘gap up’ moves out of ‘symmetrical triangle’ consolidation patterns formed on Sensex and Nifty charts. […]


Nifty chart: a mid-week update (Jan 21 ‘15)

Posted by on January 21, 2015 20:37 pm · 47 views

in Stock Trading

The unscheduled interest rate cut by RBI seems to have recharged the batteries of FIIs. Their buying spree over the last four trading sessions have turned them into net buyers of equity in Jan ‘15 from being net sellers. Not surprisingly, DIIs have turned net sellers. That could not prevent Nifty from soaring to a […]


Gold and Silver charts: an update

Posted by on January 20, 2015 17:53 pm · 26 views

in Stock Trading

There has been a significant change on the daily chart pattern of gold since the previous post. The 40 months long bear market that started after gold touched its lifetime high in Sep ‘11 appears to be over. Why? Note that gold’s price formed a slightly complicated ‘inverse head-and-shoulders’ reversal pattern that took more than 4 months to […]


S&P 500, FTSE 100 charts: bears trying to dominate

Posted by on January 19, 2015 20:32 pm · 29 views

in Stock Trading

The daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500 breached the lower support line of the ‘rising wedge’ pattern for the second time in two weeks. This time, it remained below the wedge – though it did attempt a pullback on the last day of the week. A break down from a bearish pattern is often followed by […]


There were two surprises for investors last week. The first was an unscheduled 25 bps cut in interest rates by RBI. The second was Swiss central bank’s decision to remove the cap on the value of Swiss Franc against the Euro. RBI’s rate cut was welcomed by the market. It provided a trigger for FIIs to increase […]


The short answer to the question is: Yes. Why? Low inflation during the past few months had increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut sooner than later. It was widely expected that RBI will start slashing interest rates from Feb ‘15 onwards. While some experts were touting a 50 bps (i.e. 0.5%) cut, the […]


Nifty chart: a mid-week update (Jan 14 ‘15)

Posted by on January 14, 2015 20:22 pm · 50 views

in Stock Trading

CPI and WPI inflation have started inching up again, as the effect of a higher base starts to wear off. Higher food prices played a part as well. The positive IIP number raised bullish hopes. FIIs have been net sellers of equity worth Rs 2200 Crores this month. DII net buying of about Rs 1400 […]


WTI and Brent Crude Oil charts: fall to 6 yr lows

Posted by on January 13, 2015 19:55 pm · 44 views

in Stock Trading

The daily bar chart pattern of WTI Crude oil halted for a few days around the 55 level in Dec ‘14. But it was just a temporary pause. The down move resumed in earnest. The psychological level of 50 was breached easily as oil’s price plunged to 6 yr lows. All three technical indicators are well inside […]


S&P 500, FTSE 100 charts: bears lurking in the shadows

Posted by on January 12, 2015 21:22 pm · 44 views

in Stock Trading

Volumes increased on the first two days of the week, as the daily bar chart pattern of S&P 500breached the lower support line of the ‘rising wedge’ pattern and dropped below the 2000 level. The possibility was mentioned in last week’s analysis. Though the index closed below the wedge pattern for a day, it wasn’t a technically […]


Falling price of crude oil and uncertainty about Greece’s possible exit from the Euro zone were the triggers that caused a wave of selling in global stock markets by FIIs last week. They were net sellers of equity worth Rs 2900 Crores in the Indian market. DII net buying of Rs 1800 Crores prevented bigger […]


3 Unbreakable Trading Rules

Posted by on January 8, 2015 20:38 pm · 69 views

in Stock Trading

Regular readers of my posts already know that I have a strong bias towards long-term investing. It is important for young investors to understand that short-term trading in stocks may seem fun and exciting – but those are precisely the feelings that lead to losses. Those who enter the market for the first time often […]


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